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Quickie idea: Navistar $NAV

Posted On October 14, 2020
This post is another in a series I plan do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope with this particular idea is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find […]

October premium update

Posted On October 14, 2020
Hi subs, I know I say this every month… but wow is there a lot to talk about this month! First, thank you so much for subscribing to the premium site! Second, a quick housekeeping. This month’s housekeeping has three parts: You can always reach me at [email protected] with any questions / concerns etc. And, […]

Premium post: Shopping for value

Posted On October 12, 2020
COVID has introduced an unbelievable step change in retailing. 10 years of “offline to online” sales share shift happened overnight. The results can be seen in the stock market: anything exposed to physical retail has been slaughtered, while online retailers have soared. I suspect there’s opportunity in that divergence. Once things normalize (i.e. we have […]

BMY CVR: an inspection inflection? $BMYRT

Posted On October 8, 2020
Of everything I've ever done, I think the threesome (podcast) I did on Bristol-Meyers CVR has gotten the most engagement / user interaction. And with good reason! At the time of that podcast, the CVR was trading for around $2/share. If successful, the CVR will payout at $9/share by March 2021, so you're talking about […]

$ANGI: odds and ends

Posted On October 7, 2020
Last week, I posted the qualitative and quantitative bull thesis for ANGI. Today, I want to dive into some other odds and ends that didn't make their way into the piece, as well as answer some questions / concerns / bear thesis that have been sent to me since posting. One question that's always worth […]

A flywheel marketplace at <10x EBITDA: $ANGI $IAC

Posted On October 2, 2020
Yesterday, I put up a post on ANGI's emerging flywheel. I'd encourage you to read that for qualitative background on ANGI, because today we're diving deep into the valuation of ANGI. However, before we go into that, let me start with a little bit of a tease and a question. First, the question: based on […]

Getting the flywheel spinning at $ANGI $IAC

Posted On October 1, 2020
If the past few years have taught investors anything, it's one simple rule: buy pre-deal SPACs, pray that they announce a merger with anything that can vaguely be construed as an electric vehicle company, and profit. Have there been other lessons to be learned in the past year? Sure, though honestly those other lessons are […]

Some things and ideas: September 2020

Posted On September 30, 2020
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

Premium post: September premium update

Posted On September 22, 2020
Two updates and one new idea

Assured Guaranty: the bull case $AGO

Posted On September 17, 2020
Yesterday, I posted the bear case for AGO. Today, I wanted to dive into the bull cases. Just a quick summary of the bear case before we dive in: AGO is a financial guarantor. Your big worry with AGO is that most of their guarantees are against municipalities, and municipality budgets appear stretched, yet AGO […]
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