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Year: 2021

$GTXMQ: a word on the record date

Posted On March 11, 2021
First, nothing on here is investing advice. GTX is emerging from bankruptcy. Please do your own diligence. I've mentioned GTX on here several times; I originally published the thesis publicly, but I did premium only updates on it in late October and mid-January. It was a good thesis, and it worked out well. I wanted […]

Yet Another Look at a Reopening Play: $SIX

Posted On March 9, 2021
One of my predictions for 2021 was that cruise line stocks would perform poorly as the year went along (see #7). My thinking was pretty simple: on an EV basis, cruise lines were already trading at valuations in line with their pre-pandemic levels. They were still going to be burning hundreds of millions a month […]

The tide is turning in SPAC land; what comes next?

Posted On March 4, 2021
I went into last weekend all prepped to write two articles this week. The first was going to be a "quickie" idea on Enlab getting a bump; I was super excited about that one because it had the same activist (Alta Fox) from another quickie idea, CLCT, and I had a lot of familiarity with […]

Some things and ideas: February 2021

Posted On February 26, 2021
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

Yet Another $PSTH deep dive, part 2: scenario analysis and some sample trade

Posted On February 24, 2021
This is the fourth (and hopefully final!) piece I'm writing on PSTH. It should be read in conjunction with yesterday's "framing the opportunity" piece; however, my two prior posts (December's curios case of PSTH options and early Feb's implied vol / SPACsanity) are worth revisiting as well. Why am I spending so much time and […]

Yet Another $PSTH deep dive, part 1: framing the opportunity

Posted On February 22, 2021
I wanted to build out the PSTH thesis laid out in my two public posts a little further (ok, a lot further), because I think the risk/reward on the PSTH options is absolutely outrageous. My bottom line is nothing has changed from my two initial posts; I’m hugely bullish on the set up. In fact, […]

Quickie idea: $CKH bumpitrage

Posted On February 17, 2021
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]

Big Three Cable: still too cheap $ATUS $CHTR $CMCSA $CABO

Posted On February 17, 2021
Long time readers know that I've been a cable bull for.... well, a long time. Charter is the headliner here, as it's probably the company I've written the most about on this site, but I've touched on basically every publicly traded cable company at some point in this site's history. The thesis has always been […]

Feb. 2021 premium update (paywall)

Posted On February 16, 2021
Hi subs, Before we get to the updates- first, thank you so much for subscribing to the premium site! Second, a quick housekeeping. This month’s housekeeping has three parts: I mentioned it in my 2021 vision, but my goal for the premium site is simple: 2 posts/month (24 posts a year). One of the monthly posts […]

$PSTH, $PSHZF, and implied vol: another look at SPACsanity

Posted On February 10, 2021
This week, one company has been overwhelmingly dominating my thoughts. Actually, I use the term company, but it's really just a cash shell. That company / cash shell? Pershing Square Tontine (PSTH; disclosure: long, and this article will discuss options, which are extremely risky so I will remind you that nothing on here is investing […]
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