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Category: Investment Theses (premium)

Premium Post: Buying the picks and shovels to the SPAC goldmine

Posted On February 4, 2021
I’ll admit it: I’ve been more than a little obsessed with SPACs recently. Fully half of my predictions for 2021 centered on SPACs, and my January 2021 links and ideas included a “SPACs SPACs SPACs” section. Heck, it’s possible I’m more obsessed with SPACs than cruise lines. But there’s a reason for that SPAC obsession: […]

Premium post: Another worthy play (paywall)

Posted On January 15, 2021
My 2021 state of the markets was entitled “speculative excess and opportunity everywhere.” No where is that speculative excess more exuberant than in the SPAC market…. but that excess is creating incredible opportunities in tangential plays. Consider, for example, my post last year on Worthington (WOR; (July 2020 idea; substack / blog); closed September 2020 (substack / blog)). The basic […]

Premium Post: One more SPAC-"option arb"

Posted On December 11, 2020
Recently I’ve posted two articles on taking advantage of SPACs with high volatility: The curious case of PSTH’s options, and assessing IPOC’s options. The basics behind these trades are simple: volatility on some of these SPACs is absolutely off the charts, and if you structure the options correctly you can take advantage of that optionality […]

[Premium] Potential for more than generic returns

Posted On December 6, 2020
Collaborative Write-Up with Mike from Nongaap Note: This section was written by written by Andrew from YAVB On the whole, 2020 has been a bummer. But, for me personally, one of the bright spots for the year has been virtually meeting a ton of sharp new people. Some of them I’ve met through the podcast, and […]

Premium Post: Backing some litigation

Posted On November 18, 2020
The most dangerous words in investing are “this time is different”. For years, one company has been something of the widow-maker trade for smaller event driven investors…. But I think this time is different.

Premium post: updates on $IAC and $GTXMQ

Posted On October 29, 2020
Updates on two of my favorite ideas to end the month! IAC and GTX (disclosure: in bankruptcy, buyer beware)

Premium post: Shopping for value

Posted On October 12, 2020
COVID has introduced an unbelievable step change in retailing. 10 years of “offline to online” sales share shift happened overnight. The results can be seen in the stock market: anything exposed to physical retail has been slaughtered, while online retailers have soared. I suspect there’s opportunity in that divergence. Once things normalize (i.e. we have […]

Premium Post: Can I offer you a combo special sit / asset play / compounder?

Posted On September 1, 2020
There are a lot of different types of investing that can work. I tend to gravitate more towards asset plays (this company owns $100 worth of assets and trades for $50). Some people like compounders more (companies they think can grow their net worth by 15%+ annually for decades, so even if they pay a […]

Premium Post: August monthly updates

Posted On August 25, 2020
Hi subs, Given almost every stock I’ve written about has reported earnings in the past few weeks, this month’s update post will focus on earnings updates. So tons of stuff to talk about! But, first, thank you so much for subscribing to the premium site! Second, a quick housekeeping. This month’s housekeeping has two parts: […]

Premium Post: Buying some insurance

Posted On August 3, 2020
This insurance company could easily be worth double today's share price.
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