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Category: Investment Theses (premium)

Premium: A SPAC deal leads to a special sit (Paywall)

Posted On May 4, 2021
Let me start this idea off with a disclaimer: it’s risky. If the idea doesn’t work, the downside is substantial. So please keep that in mind; sizing this properly is critical because the downside is so large (and, of course, nothing on this site is investing advice!). That said, I think this is one of […]

Premium Post: a Timely Recovery Play

Posted On April 15, 2021
One theme I’ve been beating pretty consistently since late last year is that I don’t understand the valuation of “pandemic recovery” plays. These are things like cruise ships, airlines, restaurants, and a variety of other things that have been shut down by the pandemic. Almost all of these are trading at valuations significantly in excess […]

Premium Post: Cutting into a microcap (paywall)

Posted On March 24, 2021
Note: this stock is absolutely on the smaller side. I know this is below the investable market cap for some subscribers, but this is probably the most interesting idea / situation I’m looking at right now, so I wanted to write it up because I want the premium service to focus on my best /most […]

Premium Post: Buying the picks and shovels to the SPAC goldmine

Posted On February 4, 2021
I’ll admit it: I’ve been more than a little obsessed with SPACs recently. Fully half of my predictions for 2021 centered on SPACs, and my January 2021 links and ideas included a “SPACs SPACs SPACs” section. Heck, it’s possible I’m more obsessed with SPACs than cruise lines. But there’s a reason for that SPAC obsession: […]

Premium post: Another worthy play (paywall)

Posted On January 15, 2021
My 2021 state of the markets was entitled “speculative excess and opportunity everywhere.” No where is that speculative excess more exuberant than in the SPAC market…. but that excess is creating incredible opportunities in tangential plays. Consider, for example, my post last year on Worthington (WOR; (July 2020 idea; substack / blog); closed September 2020 (substack / blog)). The basic […]

Premium Post: One more SPAC-"option arb"

Posted On December 11, 2020
Recently I’ve posted two articles on taking advantage of SPACs with high volatility: The curious case of PSTH’s options, and assessing IPOC’s options. The basics behind these trades are simple: volatility on some of these SPACs is absolutely off the charts, and if you structure the options correctly you can take advantage of that optionality […]

[Premium] Potential for more than generic returns

Posted On December 6, 2020
Collaborative Write-Up with Mike from Nongaap Note: This section was written by written by Andrew from YAVB On the whole, 2020 has been a bummer. But, for me personally, one of the bright spots for the year has been virtually meeting a ton of sharp new people. Some of them I’ve met through the podcast, and […]

Premium Post: Backing some litigation

Posted On November 18, 2020
The most dangerous words in investing are “this time is different”. For years, one company has been something of the widow-maker trade for smaller event driven investors…. But I think this time is different.

Premium post: updates on $IAC and $GTXMQ

Posted On October 29, 2020
Updates on two of my favorite ideas to end the month! IAC and GTX (disclosure: in bankruptcy, buyer beware)

Premium post: Shopping for value

Posted On October 12, 2020
COVID has introduced an unbelievable step change in retailing. 10 years of “offline to online” sales share shift happened overnight. The results can be seen in the stock market: anything exposed to physical retail has been slaughtered, while online retailers have soared. I suspect there’s opportunity in that divergence. Once things normalize (i.e. we have […]
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