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Category: Stocks by ticker

Discovering value in the wake of Archegos $DISCK

Posted On April 1, 2021
We're living in strange times. There's no doubt about that. 18 months ago, who would have believed that March Madness would be cancelled, or we'd go an entire year without fans at concerts / sports, or that the capital would be stormed? I'd guess no one. And our financial markets seem to have responded to […]

Some things and ideas: March 2021

Posted On March 31, 2021
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

A few more SPAC trades $FIII $TBA $KVSA

Posted On March 25, 2021
A few weeks ago, I said the tide was turning in SPAC-land. This week, I think it's safe to say that the tide has completely gone out on SPACs. A few weeks ago, an average SPAC merger announcement would result in a 10% pop. A good SPAC merger announcement (a good deal by a good […]

A Lucid Follow-up on SPAC-craziness: $CCIV

Posted On March 23, 2021
I've discussed CCIV a few times: in the lead up to their deal announcement, I discussed how crazy the stock price / action around the stock was. Then, when the stock crashed on the deal announcement, I wondered if that would mark the turning point to pop the SPAC bubble. But I wanted to do […]

Quickie idea: two SPACulations $TREB $OACB

Posted On March 16, 2021
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]

What the fudge is happening to legacy media stocks? $VIAC $DISCA $NFLX $T

Posted On March 15, 2021
Something weird is happening in media stocks. Legacy cable channel / media stocks have seen their stocks go on an absolute tear so far this year, while streaming "winners" have been left behind. Year to date, AMC Networks, ViacomCBS, and Discovery have all more than doubled, while DIS is up slightly and NFLX is actually […]

$GTXMQ: a word on the record date

Posted On March 11, 2021
First, nothing on here is investing advice. GTX is emerging from bankruptcy. Please do your own diligence. I've mentioned GTX on here several times; I originally published the thesis publicly, but I did premium only updates on it in late October and mid-January. It was a good thesis, and it worked out well. I wanted […]

Yet Another Look at a Reopening Play: $SIX

Posted On March 9, 2021
One of my predictions for 2021 was that cruise line stocks would perform poorly as the year went along (see #7). My thinking was pretty simple: on an EV basis, cruise lines were already trading at valuations in line with their pre-pandemic levels. They were still going to be burning hundreds of millions a month […]

Some things and ideas: February 2021

Posted On February 26, 2021
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

Yet Another $PSTH deep dive, part 2: scenario analysis and some sample trade

Posted On February 24, 2021
This is the fourth (and hopefully final!) piece I'm writing on PSTH. It should be read in conjunction with yesterday's "framing the opportunity" piece; however, my two prior posts (December's curios case of PSTH options and early Feb's implied vol / SPACsanity) are worth revisiting as well. Why am I spending so much time and […]
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