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Category: A-M

BMY CVR: an inspection inflection? $BMYRT

Posted On October 8, 2020
Of everything I've ever done, I think the threesome (podcast) I did on Bristol-Meyers CVR has gotten the most engagement / user interaction. And with good reason! At the time of that podcast, the CVR was trading for around $2/share. If successful, the CVR will payout at $9/share by March 2021, so you're talking about […]

$ANGI: odds and ends

Posted On October 7, 2020
Last week, I posted the qualitative and quantitative bull thesis for ANGI. Today, I want to dive into some other odds and ends that didn't make their way into the piece, as well as answer some questions / concerns / bear thesis that have been sent to me since posting. One question that's always worth […]

A flywheel marketplace at <10x EBITDA: $ANGI $IAC

Posted On October 2, 2020
Yesterday, I put up a post on ANGI's emerging flywheel. I'd encourage you to read that for qualitative background on ANGI, because today we're diving deep into the valuation of ANGI. However, before we go into that, let me start with a little bit of a tease and a question. First, the question: based on […]

Getting the flywheel spinning at $ANGI $IAC

Posted On October 1, 2020
If the past few years have taught investors anything, it's one simple rule: buy pre-deal SPACs, pray that they announce a merger with anything that can vaguely be construed as an electric vehicle company, and profit. Have there been other lessons to be learned in the past year? Sure, though honestly those other lessons are […]

Assured Guaranty: the bull case $AGO

Posted On September 17, 2020
Yesterday, I posted the bear case for AGO. Today, I wanted to dive into the bull cases. Just a quick summary of the bear case before we dive in: AGO is a financial guarantor. Your big worry with AGO is that most of their guarantees are against municipalities, and municipality budgets appear stretched, yet AGO […]

Assured Guaranty: the bear case $AGO

Posted On September 15, 2020
A consistent theme of this blog is my love of companies that repurchase their shares. My love of repurchases is pretty simple: if you believe a company's stock is undervalued, than there's basically no investment the company can make that has the same risk/reward as the company buying back their own shares. Whenever a company […]

Random thoughts on cable and wireless post Q2 earnings

Posted On August 17, 2020
I had a lot of interesting conversations about the cable / telecom sector on the heels of my podcast with The Science of Hitting. I wanted to share some of the thoughts coming out of those convos, so I've done so in bullet form below. Honestly, the conversations have been really interesting, so please feel […]

Malone's perplexing rights offering spree $LILAK $LSXMK

Posted On August 6, 2020
Something I've wondered about a few times: what stock has burnt the most value investors (had the most value investors invested into them but ended up exploding)?

Some things and ideas: July 2020

Posted On July 31, 2020
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

Investment implications from.... Kodak? $KODK

Posted On July 30, 2020
Last week, I said SPACs were the most ludicrous bubble we'll ever see. In less than 10 days, I may be forced to eat my words because Kodak's current run certainly tops any SPAC for craziness. Better people than me have already touched on how ridiculous Kodak is. This piece from Epislon theory is a […]
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