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Category: N-Z

A few more SPAC trades $FIII $TBA $KVSA

Posted On March 25, 2021
A few weeks ago, I said the tide was turning in SPAC-land. This week, I think it's safe to say that the tide has completely gone out on SPACs. A few weeks ago, an average SPAC merger announcement would result in a 10% pop. A good SPAC merger announcement (a good deal by a good […]

Quickie idea: two SPACulations $TREB $OACB

Posted On March 16, 2021
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]

What the fudge is happening to legacy media stocks? $VIAC $DISCA $NFLX $T

Posted On March 15, 2021
Something weird is happening in media stocks. Legacy cable channel / media stocks have seen their stocks go on an absolute tear so far this year, while streaming "winners" have been left behind. Year to date, AMC Networks, ViacomCBS, and Discovery have all more than doubled, while DIS is up slightly and NFLX is actually […]

Yet Another Look at a Reopening Play: $SIX

Posted On March 9, 2021
One of my predictions for 2021 was that cruise line stocks would perform poorly as the year went along (see #7). My thinking was pretty simple: on an EV basis, cruise lines were already trading at valuations in line with their pre-pandemic levels. They were still going to be burning hundreds of millions a month […]

Some things and ideas: February 2021

Posted On February 26, 2021
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

Yet Another $PSTH deep dive, part 2: scenario analysis and some sample trade

Posted On February 24, 2021
This is the fourth (and hopefully final!) piece I'm writing on PSTH. It should be read in conjunction with yesterday's "framing the opportunity" piece; however, my two prior posts (December's curios case of PSTH options and early Feb's implied vol / SPACsanity) are worth revisiting as well. Why am I spending so much time and […]

Yet Another $PSTH deep dive, part 1: framing the opportunity

Posted On February 22, 2021
I wanted to build out the PSTH thesis laid out in my two public posts a little further (ok, a lot further), because I think the risk/reward on the PSTH options is absolutely outrageous. My bottom line is nothing has changed from my two initial posts; I’m hugely bullish on the set up. In fact, […]

$PSTH, $PSHZF, and implied vol: another look at SPACsanity

Posted On February 10, 2021
This week, one company has been overwhelmingly dominating my thoughts. Actually, I use the term company, but it's really just a cash shell. That company / cash shell? Pershing Square Tontine (PSTH; disclosure: long, and this article will discuss options, which are extremely risky so I will remind you that nothing on here is investing […]

Premium Case Study: Worthington $WOR

Posted On January 29, 2021
One of my goals for YAVB in 2021 was posting more case studies: ideas from YAV premium that have played out (whether positively or negatively). There are a lot of reasons for doing so: partly for marketing purposes for the premium site, partly because some people get value in seeing fully written ideas and learning from them, and partly (mostly) […]

Quickie idea: $UWMC squeezing higher post-deSPACing

Posted On January 22, 2021
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]
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