Posted On March 11, 2021
First, nothing on here is investing advice. GTX is emerging from bankruptcy. Please do your own diligence. I've mentioned GTX on here several times; I originally published the thesis publicly, but I did premium only updates on it in late October and mid-January. It was a good thesis, and it worked out well. I wanted […]
Posted On March 9, 2021
One of my predictions for 2021 was that cruise line stocks would perform poorly as the year went along (see #7). My thinking was pretty simple: on an EV basis, cruise lines were already trading at valuations in line with their pre-pandemic levels. They were still going to be burning hundreds of millions a month […]
Posted On February 26, 2021
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]
Posted On February 24, 2021
This is the fourth (and hopefully final!) piece I'm writing on PSTH. It should be read in conjunction with yesterday's "framing the opportunity" piece; however, my two prior posts (December's curios case of PSTH options and early Feb's implied vol / SPACsanity) are worth revisiting as well. Why am I spending so much time and […]
Posted On February 22, 2021
I wanted to build out the PSTH thesis laid out in my two public posts a little further (ok, a lot further), because I think the risk/reward on the PSTH options is absolutely outrageous. My bottom line is nothing has changed from my two initial posts; I’m hugely bullish on the set up. In fact, […]
Posted On February 17, 2021
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]
Posted On February 17, 2021
Long time readers know that I've been a cable bull for.... well, a long time. Charter is the headliner here, as it's probably the company I've written the most about on this site, but I've touched on basically every publicly traded cable company at some point in this site's history. The thesis has always been […]
Posted On February 10, 2021
This week, one company has been overwhelmingly dominating my thoughts. Actually, I use the term company, but it's really just a cash shell. That company / cash shell? Pershing Square Tontine (PSTH; disclosure: long, and this article will discuss options, which are extremely risky so I will remind you that nothing on here is investing […]
Posted On February 8, 2021
I have spent a lot of my time this year looking and thinking about SPACs. I think there's clearly a SPAC bubble going on right now, and one of my predictions for 2021 is that the bubble will break towards the back half of the year as the pure number of SPACs outstanding overwhelms the […]
Posted On January 29, 2021
One of my goals for YAVB in 2021 was posting more case studies: ideas from YAV premium that have played out (whether positively or negatively). There are a lot of reasons for doing so: partly for marketing purposes for the premium site, partly because some people get value in seeing fully written ideas and learning from them, and partly (mostly) […]
