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Category: Uncategorized

The Vaccine rally: right and wrong?

Posted On November 9, 2020
As I write this, stocks are absolutely screaming higher on the positive Pfizer vaccine news from this morning. Obviously, the news is great for humanity. But you know who it's even better news for? The COVID losers! Pfizer vaccine showing efficacy means that, at some point in the future, COVID can be controlled / contained […]

Some things and ideas: October 2020

Posted On October 30, 2020
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

Quickie idea: GTX bankruptcy $GTXMQ

Posted On October 23, 2020
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]

Giving in to the craziness: my top 8 SPAC ideas

Posted On October 21, 2020
I've written a few times how insane the current SPAC bubble is, but it shows no sign of slowing down. There have been 151 SPAC IPOs so far this year, and with the current SPAC pipeline we could easily be at 250 by the time the year is over. That's a wild number: over the […]

Premium post: Shopping for value

Posted On October 12, 2020
COVID has introduced an unbelievable step change in retailing. 10 years of “offline to online” sales share shift happened overnight. The results can be seen in the stock market: anything exposed to physical retail has been slaughtered, while online retailers have soared. I suspect there’s opportunity in that divergence. Once things normalize (i.e. we have […]

BMY CVR: an inspection inflection? $BMYRT

Posted On October 8, 2020
Of everything I've ever done, I think the threesome (podcast) I did on Bristol-Meyers CVR has gotten the most engagement / user interaction. And with good reason! At the time of that podcast, the CVR was trading for around $2/share. If successful, the CVR will payout at $9/share by March 2021, so you're talking about […]

$ANGI: odds and ends

Posted On October 7, 2020
Last week, I posted the qualitative and quantitative bull thesis for ANGI. Today, I want to dive into some other odds and ends that didn't make their way into the piece, as well as answer some questions / concerns / bear thesis that have been sent to me since posting. One question that's always worth […]

A flywheel marketplace at <10x EBITDA: $ANGI $IAC

Posted On October 2, 2020
Yesterday, I put up a post on ANGI's emerging flywheel. I'd encourage you to read that for qualitative background on ANGI, because today we're diving deep into the valuation of ANGI. However, before we go into that, let me start with a little bit of a tease and a question. First, the question: based on […]

Assured Guaranty: the bull case $AGO

Posted On September 17, 2020
Yesterday, I posted the bear case for AGO. Today, I wanted to dive into the bull cases. Just a quick summary of the bear case before we dive in: AGO is a financial guarantor. Your big worry with AGO is that most of their guarantees are against municipalities, and municipality budgets appear stretched, yet AGO […]

Assured Guaranty: the bear case $AGO

Posted On September 15, 2020
A consistent theme of this blog is my love of companies that repurchase their shares. My love of repurchases is pretty simple: if you believe a company's stock is undervalued, than there's basically no investment the company can make that has the same risk/reward as the company buying back their own shares. Whenever a company […]
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