Posted On January 7, 2021
Earlier this week, I posted my "state of the markets" for 2021. The summary was that, while I see several pockets of excess / exuberance, I see plenty of dislocations and opportunities. Towards the end of the post, I mentioned that I wanted to spend some time navel-gazing about how I wanted to evolve the Yet […]
Posted On January 5, 2021
Yesterday, I posted my "state of the markets" for 2021. The summary was that, while I see several pockets of excess / exuberance, I see plenty of dislocations and opportunities. Towards the end of the post, I mentioned that I wanted to spend some time navel-gazing about how I wanted to evolve the Yet Another […]
Posted On January 4, 2021
In 2000, the tech bubble collapsed. The next 2.5 years were a disaster for stocks in general; the S&P 500 shed about half its value and the Nasdaq dropped even more. But it was a super fertile time for value investors; sectors that had been left for dead saw huge increases as speculative money dried […]
Posted On December 30, 2020
I've spent a lot of time on BMY's CVR (BMY-R or BMYRT) over the past few years. On top of endlessly disclosing that CVRs are insanely risky and nothing on this blog or anything else I do is ever investing advice (a disclosure I will reiterate here, as well as noting nothing on here is […]
Posted On December 30, 2020
This is part 2 of my predictions for 2021. Part 2 centers on my non-SPAC predictions; you can find part 1, which focused on SPACs, here. Cable One (CABO) massively underperforms its cable peers Cruise stocks have a rough 2021 Free Radical media companies finally start to consolidate All the major movie theaters file for […]
Posted On December 28, 2020
I love exercising. I do it basically every day (well, once a week I'll generally take a White Claw inspired day off). I used to do it two times a day, and I'd still like to if I could, but as I've gotten older time demands have generally precluded two work outs a day. Still, […]
Posted On December 16, 2020
This morning, ANGI stock fell ~5% on a news story that Facebook was plotting a rival service. If you just thought about that announcement in a vacuum, ANGI's stock going down would make sense. In fact, you might even find a drop of only 5% a little puzzling. Facebook is probably the most powerful corporation […]
Posted On December 4, 2020
The write up below is long and a little winding. So I'm going to break it up into five "chapters": A disclosure Define a "DVMT" (for option purposes) A shorter version of the thesis A request Finally, the full write up. "Chapter" 1: Disclosure: We are long PSTH and short PSTH puts. Nothing on here […]
Posted On December 3, 2020
This is the second part in a series on Multiplan (MPLN, disclosure: long). Part one (which you can find here) talked about the potential for a short squeeze in Multiplan. Today's post is going to dive into the weakness I see in the short thesis. To start, you can find Muddy Water's (MW) full short […]
Posted On November 9, 2020
As I write this, stocks are absolutely screaming higher on the positive Pfizer vaccine news from this morning. Obviously, the news is great for humanity. But you know who it's even better news for? The COVID losers! Pfizer vaccine showing efficacy means that, at some point in the future, COVID can be controlled / contained […]
