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A Lucid look at the SPAC-craziness: $CCIV deep dive

Posted On February 8, 2021
I have spent a lot of my time this year looking and thinking about SPACs. I think there's clearly a SPAC bubble going on right now, and one of my predictions for 2021 is that the bubble will break towards the back half of the year as the pure number of SPACs outstanding overwhelms the […]

Premium Post: Buying the picks and shovels to the SPAC goldmine

Posted On February 4, 2021
I’ll admit it: I’ve been more than a little obsessed with SPACs recently. Fully half of my predictions for 2021 centered on SPACs, and my January 2021 links and ideas included a “SPACs SPACs SPACs” section. Heck, it’s possible I’m more obsessed with SPACs than cruise lines. But there’s a reason for that SPAC obsession: […]

Some things and ideas: January 2021

Posted On February 1, 2021
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later […]

Premium Case Study: Worthington $WOR

Posted On January 29, 2021
One of my goals for YAVB in 2021 was posting more case studies: ideas from YAV premium that have played out (whether positively or negatively). There are a lot of reasons for doing so: partly for marketing purposes for the premium site, partly because some people get value in seeing fully written ideas and learning from them, and partly (mostly) […]

Short squeezes, gamma, and fiduciary duty $GME

Posted On January 27, 2021
I'm not that old (I'm 32). I can't remember the dotcom bubble, but I have some memories of the financial crisis (it happened when I was first starting to invest) and can remember plenty of weird markets including the drawdown in early 2016 (which hammered growth / tech stocks), the meltdown of late 2018, the […]

Quickie idea: $UWMC squeezing higher post-deSPACing

Posted On January 22, 2021
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]

Quickie idea: Atlantic Power arb / potential bidding war $AT

Posted On January 19, 2021
This post is another in a series I do on an irregular basis. A “quickie” idea is an investment specific idea that I’ve been mulling over and find interesting, but haven’t dove fully into yet. The hope is to provide the jumping off point for a discussion of an idea I find extremely interesting right now, as […]

Premium case study: $GHIV SPAC-"option arb"

Posted On January 18, 2021
One of my goals for YAVB in 2021 was posting more case studies: ideas from YAV premium that have played out (whether positively or negatively). There are a lot of reasons for doing so: partly for marketing purposes for the premium site, partly because some people get value in seeing fully written ideas and learning […]

Premium post: Another worthy play (paywall)

Posted On January 15, 2021
My 2021 state of the markets was entitled “speculative excess and opportunity everywhere.” No where is that speculative excess more exuberant than in the SPAC market…. but that excess is creating incredible opportunities in tangential plays. Consider, for example, my post last year on Worthington (WOR; (July 2020 idea; substack / blog); closed September 2020 (substack / blog)). The basic […]

January 2021 premium update (paywall)

Posted On January 13, 2021
Hi subs, Before we get to the updates- first, thank you so much for subscribing to the premium site! Second, a quick housekeeping. This month’s housekeeping has three parts: I mentioned it in my 2021 vision, but my goal for the premium site is simple: 2 posts/month (24 posts a year). One of the monthly […]
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