Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the circus that is the Elon Musk and Twitter merger agreement and explains why he thinks Delaware law and precedent suggest Elon would lose in court and be forced to close the merger on terms.
My piece on Twitter: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/twitter-the-circus-will-have-a-happy?s=w
This podcast was taped afternoon of May 23; things are moving quickly so just time stamping that!
2:15 Twitter overview
6:45 Why bot followers do not equal mDAUs
8:00 Why is Twitter mispriced right now?
12:40 Specific performance versus the $1 billion break fee
18:30 Defining a material adverse event (MAE)
26:25 The LVMH / TIF parallels
30:00 Why Elon should avoid going to court in Delaware
35:45 Could Elon actually get out of this deal on a bot miscount?
38:25 Does Elon waiving DD hurt him in a potential court case?
42:35 How risky will discovery be for Twitter?
46:55 Elon's financing risk / what price does the TSLA margin call happen?
50:15 Can Elon walk if Tesla stock blows up?
53:40 Will TWTR's board fold?
1:01:00 What if Elon losses and still refuses to perform?
1:03:45 Potential for an activist like Carl Icahn to get involved
1:06:00 Why a mediation and slight price cut might be the most likely outcome
1:09:50 What's the downside if Twitter loses?
1:13:00 Event path odds