- Write up in the Diff (per his disclosures Byrne subsequently purchased some shares): https://www.thediff.co/archive/kaspikz-how-a-bank-turned-into-a/
- Pretty important question of ultimate ownership: https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddawkins/2020/11/25/the-two-billion-dollar-mystery-behind-the-owners…
For me the numbers look great - BUT the real challenge is how to think about (and price/quantify) the risk of state intervention/expropriation and/or being caught up in further sanctions.
Also, there is a backdoor way via Kazakhstan financial clearing houses and brokers for Westerners to unload etc Russian ADRs that I had linked to awhile back:
Investors Trapped in Russian Bonds Find Buyers in Kazakhstan (Bloomberg via Yahoo!)
"Registering the debt with a Kazakh clearing house then enables buyers to collect coupon and principal payments, according to the people, who declined to provide additional details or names of companies involved in the transactions.The workaround allows Kazakh firms to reap a quick paper profit for themselves and customers at a time when some international investors remain stuck with billions of dollars worth of ruble debt. Myriad restrictions block foreigners from collecting coupons and principal, but inside the country local investors can receive payments."
Two additional pieces worth reading:
- Write up in the Diff (per his disclosures Byrne subsequently purchased some shares): https://www.thediff.co/archive/kaspikz-how-a-bank-turned-into-a/
- Pretty important question of ultimate ownership: https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddawkins/2020/11/25/the-two-billion-dollar-mystery-behind-the-ownership-of-london-listed-kazakh-fintech-kaspi/
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For me the numbers look great - BUT the real challenge is how to think about (and price/quantify) the risk of state intervention/expropriation and/or being caught up in further sanctions.
Kaspi keeps coming up in fund updates and reports as a holding - at least one fund has taken profits on it though: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/?sort=search&search=kaspi
Also, there is a backdoor way via Kazakhstan financial clearing houses and brokers for Westerners to unload etc Russian ADRs that I had linked to awhile back:
Investors Trapped in Russian Bonds Find Buyers in Kazakhstan (Bloomberg via Yahoo!)
https://web.archive.org/web/20221223003125/https://www.yahoo.com/now/kazakhs-scoop-russia-debt-investors-045245236.html
https://www.yahoo.com/now/kazakhs-scoop-russia-debt-investors-045245236.html
"Registering the debt with a Kazakh clearing house then enables buyers to collect coupon and principal payments, according to the people, who declined to provide additional details or names of companies involved in the transactions.The workaround allows Kazakh firms to reap a quick paper profit for themselves and customers at a time when some international investors remain stuck with billions of dollars worth of ruble debt. Myriad restrictions block foreigners from collecting coupons and principal, but inside the country local investors can receive payments."