While I am a card carrying member of the process over outcome anti-resulting fan club, the simple math of expected outcome which works so well for casino owners making millions of time-tested positive expectation bets per year requires adjustment when used by an investor making only a handful of custom wagers over the same time period. W…
While I am a card carrying member of the process over outcome anti-resulting fan club, the simple math of expected outcome which works so well for casino owners making millions of time-tested positive expectation bets per year requires adjustment when used by an investor making only a handful of custom wagers over the same time period. We will never have the perfect information and unlimited betting opportunities of the MGM grand.
The only solution that works for me is to keep the size of any individual binary bet below my pain threshold (a capital loss big enough to make a real difference). This raises the question as to whether making these 0.25-1.0% bets is worth my time. It's still yes for favorably priced CVR's which pay back multiples of cost if successful, but it generally stops me from spending time on arbs that would collapse significantly if broken. (I'll run in front of a steamroller for $20 but not for a quarter).
While I am a card carrying member of the process over outcome anti-resulting fan club, the simple math of expected outcome which works so well for casino owners making millions of time-tested positive expectation bets per year requires adjustment when used by an investor making only a handful of custom wagers over the same time period. We will never have the perfect information and unlimited betting opportunities of the MGM grand.
The only solution that works for me is to keep the size of any individual binary bet below my pain threshold (a capital loss big enough to make a real difference). This raises the question as to whether making these 0.25-1.0% bets is worth my time. It's still yes for favorably priced CVR's which pay back multiples of cost if successful, but it generally stops me from spending time on arbs that would collapse significantly if broken. (I'll run in front of a steamroller for $20 but not for a quarter).