Andrew, reflecting back on the process, I do have two observations, based on my impressions from your work and the X-scope: eyes and ears in the courtroom in general came away with a 50/50 sense of the outcome, and reports from the final day suggested the majority in attendance were leaning toward DOJ. Even Lionel, attending the summary …
Andrew, reflecting back on the process, I do have two observations, based on my impressions from your work and the X-scope: eyes and ears in the courtroom in general came away with a 50/50 sense of the outcome, and reports from the final day suggested the majority in attendance were leaning toward DOJ. Even Lionel, attending the summary hearing, came away less certain of the outcome. Some of Judge Young's comments, as relayed second hand, even suggested he was getting on board with the DOJ perspective, expressing interest in the welfare of LES families who might be stranded by loss of access to their ULCC. While this was explained as "kicking the tires," it might have been more clear to those present that he was "drinking the Kool Aid."
Second, perhaps apply Bayes theorem...I imaging you already do. Pre-test probability of a DOJ favorable outcome in Federal court, if I recall correctly, is historically 80% (home team advantage); adjusted by sense from the courtroom (call it 50/50), then further adjusted by document review (which seemed extremely compelling in this case, although sadly not to Judge Young).
Andrew, reflecting back on the process, I do have two observations, based on my impressions from your work and the X-scope: eyes and ears in the courtroom in general came away with a 50/50 sense of the outcome, and reports from the final day suggested the majority in attendance were leaning toward DOJ. Even Lionel, attending the summary hearing, came away less certain of the outcome. Some of Judge Young's comments, as relayed second hand, even suggested he was getting on board with the DOJ perspective, expressing interest in the welfare of LES families who might be stranded by loss of access to their ULCC. While this was explained as "kicking the tires," it might have been more clear to those present that he was "drinking the Kool Aid."
Second, perhaps apply Bayes theorem...I imaging you already do. Pre-test probability of a DOJ favorable outcome in Federal court, if I recall correctly, is historically 80% (home team advantage); adjusted by sense from the courtroom (call it 50/50), then further adjusted by document review (which seemed extremely compelling in this case, although sadly not to Judge Young).