Thanks Andrew. The deep thinking on "big" questions about the future -- like obesity or rule of law or AI -- makes this game loads of fun. Right now I'm pondering the tail risks associated with the impact of demographics (particularly declining child births in China -- see Peter Zeihan's stuff) versus the end of the American empire and t…
Thanks Andrew. The deep thinking on "big" questions about the future -- like obesity or rule of law or AI -- makes this game loads of fun. Right now I'm pondering the tail risks associated with the impact of demographics (particularly declining child births in China -- see Peter Zeihan's stuff) versus the end of the American empire and the rise of China (see Ray Dalio's stuff). Zeihan is predicting the collapse of China and the continued strength of America as globalism is replaced by nationalism. Dalio is predicting the end of American strength as our time as an empire follows typical historical patterns, and the rise of China. Two really smart guys -- differing outcomes. Macro tail risks are really hard. The more interesting question may be whether you/I/we can come up with a macro tail risk that drives an investible thesis because it is relatively likely to happen and under-appreciated by the rest of the market? Something like the collapse of the housing market in 2008-09. Kuppy thinks oil spiking to $300 is one such tail risk. Will have to give it some thought on others.
Thanks Andrew. The deep thinking on "big" questions about the future -- like obesity or rule of law or AI -- makes this game loads of fun. Right now I'm pondering the tail risks associated with the impact of demographics (particularly declining child births in China -- see Peter Zeihan's stuff) versus the end of the American empire and the rise of China (see Ray Dalio's stuff). Zeihan is predicting the collapse of China and the continued strength of America as globalism is replaced by nationalism. Dalio is predicting the end of American strength as our time as an empire follows typical historical patterns, and the rise of China. Two really smart guys -- differing outcomes. Macro tail risks are really hard. The more interesting question may be whether you/I/we can come up with a macro tail risk that drives an investible thesis because it is relatively likely to happen and under-appreciated by the rest of the market? Something like the collapse of the housing market in 2008-09. Kuppy thinks oil spiking to $300 is one such tail risk. Will have to give it some thought on others.