Some things and ideas: April 2024
Every month, I put out a “some things and ideas” post with random thoughts on articles or market stuff that caught my attention in the last month (as well as some fantasy book recommendations and some other monthly recurring reminders!).
My monthly overview (Monthly recurring piece)
I consider YAVB my “empire” with four core pieces: this blog / substack (the free side), the premium side of this blog, my podcast (also on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube), and my twitter account. You can see my 2024 vision and goals for the empire here. If you like the blog / free site, I'd encourage you to check out the pod, follow me on twitter, and maybe even subscribe to the premium site!
A bonus note: I get asked from lots of people about how to break into the finance industry. I detailed it more here, but my top advice would be to go out and start a substack (substack recently gave me a referral code if you start one; if you use that, awesome! But I’ve been recommending starting a substack long before they offered referrals!). If you do launch a substack, please let me know so I can try to be helpful.
State of the markets (Monthly recurring piece)
I like to use the CNN “Fear & Greed” Index just to quantify where the markets are; this month, we’re just slightly tipping into fear
That feels about right; the past ~month has been pretty brutal for stocks:
And it’s led to small cap stocks actually giving up all of their gains for the year.
My thoughts? Stocks on the whole are probably slightly cheap; I continue to think there’s good value to be had in anything with some cyclicality or hair on it, and it’s tough (for me at least!) to find any margin of safety in the growthier stuff given where they generally trade. One particular area of interest: several friends and I have been discussing how fertile the small cap special situation area is right now; between ADTH and TH, that’s obviously been a big area of focus of mine so perhaps I’m talking my own book!
Nerd Corner (Monthly recurring piece)
There’s no hiding it; I’m a massive nerd. I read 3-4 fantasy books a month, my favorite pastime is playing board games with my wife and friends, and I was an eager supporter of the Brandon Sanderson Kickstarter (yes, I splurged and went for the hardcover books).
Anyway, I figured a few of you are nerds like me, so I started this segment to give recs of what I’m nerding out over currently, with the hope that you’ll either try it and enjoy it or recommend me similarly nerdy things that I’ll enjoy. This month’s recs:
The final book in the Silvers saga came out this month. However, I realized it’d been so long since I’d read the first two books that I pretty much couldn’t remember what happened, so I reread Flight of the Silvers and Song of the Orphans (book 1 and 2). I do not regret that one bit; I forgot how good the series is. In fact, I’m adding it to my perma-rec list below, and I can’t wait to dig into book 3!
PS- outside of my monthly recs, I constantly get asked what my favorite fantasy books are. So I’m just going to throw this list out monthly:
Anything Brandon Sanderson writes; he’s by far the best fantasy author out there. I’d probably start with Mistborn, though Tess and the Emerald Sea is basically a standalone book and might be my favorite book he’s written. The Frugal Wizard’s Handbook for Surviving Medieval England is also a standalone book and a very fun and fast read.
Kingkiller is probably the best series I’ve ever read; waiting for the third is agony.
Gentleman Bastards is right up there with Kingkiller; the mix of fun and world building is outstanding.
Red Rising series is more sci-fi, but my god is it good. I would literally stay up all night to read every book the day they came out (note: I’ve only read the first trilogy; I’m going to read the second when the last book comes out later this year).
If you’re looking for something a little more under the radar (most of the books above are widely regarded as some of the best fantasy books / series ever), the Licanius Trilogy was fantastic.
First Law trilogy is excellent. It can get a little brutal / graphic though; there are a bunch of sequels and spins, but I’ve never been able to finish them because one of them got so brutal I just put the book down and never picked it up again. But the first trilogy is really, really great.
The Cradle series probably isn’t as “good” as the books above, but I binged them and every fantasy fan I’ve recommended them to has said something along the line of “I read all ten books in two months after I opened the first one.”
I’ve also really enjoyed that author’s newest series, Last Horizon!
The Wandering Inn series isn’t for everyone, and the first ~150 pages of the first book need to get powered through…. but, if you can power through them, the world building here is incredible, and I’ve had so many friends get hooked by this series. If you like hard fantasy, I can near guarantee you’ll like it.
The Silvers Epic (Flight of the Silvers, Song of the Orphans, War of the Givens) is more sci-fi than fantasy, but it’s one of my favorite series I’ve ever read and I think is wildly creative in how they use time travel / multiverse as a plot point.
Other things that caught my eye (monthly recurring piece)
Nike reverses course as innovation stalls and rivals gain ground
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Probably the most interesting thing I read this month!
Chase bank to let advertisers target customers based on spending data
Boston eyes commercial tax hike to counter office market dip
My largest current worry is doom loops in big cities, and this is the exact type of proposal that sets of doom loops
Counter: reversing the Doom Loop is possible. Just look at Detriot
how a pioneering blackjack master beats the odds of aging (ed thorp, 91, looks great!)
Trump Media CEO Decries Naked Short Selling; Citadel Fires Back, Stock Rises