Some things and ideas: February 2023
Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later in the month.
My monthly overview (Monthly recurring piece)
I consider YAVB my “empire” with four core pieces: this blog / substack (the free side), the premium side of this blog, my podcast (also on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube), and my twitter account. You can see my 2022 vision and goals for the empire here. If you like the blog / free site, I'd encourage you to check out the pod, follow me on twitter, and maybe even subscribe to the premium site!
I try to be as helpful as humanly possible to anyone whose research / writing I enjoy. In almost every post I do, you'll notice I link to other subscription services or investors who I like. I don't get referral fees or anything for that; these are almost always organic links and highlights that I do not because I was asked to but because one of my goals with the (very small) platform I have is to shine light on other people who are doing good work and make sure they have a platform big enough to encourage them to keep doing good work!
If you're launching a subscription service, or a new blog, or you're an investor who has done some really good research and wants to get some more eyeballs on it, please drop me a line and let me know. If the quality is there, I would love to link to your blog post or subscription service or research (and if the quality isn't there, I'm happy to provide feedback! I have done so with several services and I think my advice is good / appreciated / helpful!), and I'd love to have you on the podcast to talk about all of it. I can't promise anything, but most podcast guests / people I've linked to have been very happy about the reception / feedback they've gotten (I've even been called the king of the sub bumps / almost as good as Twitter / a big sub bump, and I've generally heard from investors with LPs who come on the podcast that they're delighted by the response). My DMs are always open, so feel free to slide into them if I can be helpful!
A bonus note: I get asked from lots of people about how to break into the finance industry. I detailed it more here, but my top advice would be to go out and start a substack (substack recently gave me a referral code if you start one; if you use that, awesome! But I’ve been recommending starting a substack long before they offered referrals!)
Podcast update
I announced this earlier this month, but just highlighting that the Yet Another Value Podcast is getting a new editor / producer. Nothing should change content wise; the change should just free up more time for me to focus on research. I went on the Planet Microcap pod to discuss the switch and a few other things (including a lot of TWTR / Elon) here.
State of the markets (Monthly recurring piece)
Not a ton has changed in the past month. Markets are more or less flat, the VIX is more or less stable (it was ~20 at the start of the month and it’s ~21 now), and there are a few pockets of excess valuation / speculation but not a ton that jump out to me or anything.
So not much has changed. Sometimes stocks are so cheap that you can buy just about anything and expect to do well. Sometimes they’re so expensive that it’s near impossible to find anything that will generate risk adjusted positive returns going forward. I don’t think we’re close to either of those times; there are multiple pockets of good value IMO, but you have to work a little to find them / see them.
Anyway, one thought I’ve had throughout this month. I try not to quote Buffett much on the blog (we all know he’s great, but I find many investors short cut thinking for themselves and evolving with blindly quoting Buffett, and I know many writers love to quote Buffett for the click bait), but one thing he said in his annual letter jumped out to me:
Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five year
As an investor, it’s hard to do…. but the markets are probably about reasonably priced right now. If there’s nothing that’s really exciting you right now, it’s not a bad time to be raising cash and waiting for the next fat pitch. That Buffett quote suggests you can do spectacularly by only doing something once every ~5 years, but being very right when you do it.
FinTwit NYC board game night (Monthly recurring piece)
I am an absolute board game nut, and I’m guessing some of my readers are as well, so I’ve started hosting a FinTwit board game night. We’ve done three so far, and all have been a blast!
Note that you don’t need to be a crazy active person with 500k followers on TWTR to be invited. Anyone in the NYC area who’s interested in investing (so pretty much anyone reading this email!) and board games is welcome to come.
General idea is simple: we’ll meet up at my office (it’s in the Nomad area) around 6, play some board games, and have a good time. I’ll likely order a few pizzas for the crew, and everyone is welcome to bring some drinks if they’d like to!
Anyway, if you’re interested in joining, feel free to send me an email or slide into my DMs and drop me your email there. I’ll send an email out to everyone who’s interested later this week or early next week to plan a game in the middle of the month.
If all goes well, I plan on turning it into a monthly thing, so no worries if you can’t make this one!
Nerd Corner (Monthly recurring piece)
There’s no hiding it; I’m a massive nerd. I read 3-4 fantasy books a month, my favorite pastime is playing board games with my wife and friends, and I religiously watch every new entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) and listen to fantasy show recaps on Binge Mode (so much so that I even did a Twitter Space talking about the MCU!). Plus, I was an eager supporter of the Brandon Sanderson Kickstarter (yes, I splurged and went for the hardcover books).
Anyway, I figured a few of you are nerds like me, so I’m starting this segment to give recs of what I’m nerding out over currently, with the hope that you’ll either try it and enjoy it or recommend me similarly nerdy things that I’ll enjoy. This month’s recs:
I read a few different books this month, but the only one I would recommend is Tress of the Emerald Sea. It might be Brandon Sanderson’s best work yet; it was clearly modeled as a Princess Bride type story and I absolutely loved it. I’m not sure if it’ll be quite as good if you haven’t read some of Sanderson’s other works (there are a few characters who have appeared elsewhere who appear here, and their backstory really makes the story pop), but given how much I liked it I think it would be hard to be a fantasy fan and not enjoy this one.
PS- outside of my monthly recs, I constantly get asked what my favorite fantasy books are. So I’m just going to throw this list out monthly:
Anything Brandon Sanderson writes; he’s by far the best fantasy author out there. I’d probably start with Mistborn.
Kingkiller is probably the best series I’ve ever read; waiting for the third is agony.
Gentleman Bastards is right up there with Kingkiller; the mix of fun and world building is outstanding.
Red Rising series is more sci-fi, but my god is it good. I would literally stay up all night to read every book the day they came out (note: I’ve only read the first trilogy; I’m going to read the second when the last book comes out later this year).
If you’re looking for something a little more under the radar (most of the books above are widely regarded as some of the best fantasy books / series ever), the Licanius Trilogy was fantastic.
First Law trilogy is excellent. It can get a little brutal / graphic though; there are a bunch of sequels and spins, but I’ve never been able to finish them because one of them got so brutal I just put the book down and never picked it up again. But the first trilogy is really, really great.
The Cradle series probably isn’t as “good” as the books above, but I binged them and every fantasy fan I’ve recommended them to has said something along the line of “I read all ten books in two months after I opened the first one.”
Other things I liked (Monthly Recurring Piece)
Before Jalen Hurts was a Superbowl QB, he was a powerlifter
He was also a monster! A 600 pound squat; my lord.
Lodging companies step up efforts to lure competitors’ hotels to their brands
Why I’m resigning as an FTC commissioner
DAMN!
War in Ukraine Drives New Surge of U.S. Oil Exports to Europe
Unilever Tries Reformulating Its Ice Cream to Survive Warmer Freezers
I did not know that those ice cream freezers in bodegas are owned by Unilever!
I respect the effort to save energy / money, but as a true ice cream aficionado, I am concerned about any change that could result in soggy ice cream.
FT on the state of the MANU sale
Speaking of…..
I’m a fan of the Saudi’s “invest like a 12 year old boy” strategy…. (WWE, MANU, FWONA, Nintendo)
Has anyone recommended Naomi Novik's Scholomance trilogy to you yet?
Always thought provoking.