Some things and ideas: July 2024

Every month, I put out a “some things and ideas” post with random thoughts on articles or market stuff that caught my attention in the last month (as well as some fantasy book recommendations and some other monthly recurring reminders!).

My monthly overview (Monthly recurring piece)

• I consider YAVB my “empire” with four core pieces: this blog / substack (the free side), the premium side of this blog, my podcast (also on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube), and my twitter account. You can see my 2024 vision and goals for the empire here. If you like the blog / free site, I'd encourage you to check out the pod, follow me on twitter, and maybe even subscribe to the premium site!

• A bonus note: I get asked from lots of people about how to break into the finance industry. I detailed it more here, but my top advice would be to go out and start a substack (substack recently gave me a referral code if you start one; if you use that, awesome! But I’ve been recommending starting a substack long before they offered referrals!). If you do launch a substack, please let me know so I can try to be helpful.

Happy-ish endings (hopefully)

• Earlier this month I published on a weird little SPAC Case (CNGL: the final nail in the SPAC coffin). Again, I had no skin in that game (though I have bought a few shares post the guarantee I’m about to mention, so I’m now long), but it seems like there will be a happy ending as CST has guaranteed payment for the newly issued shares (or at least I hope there will be!).

  • Matt Levine had a write up on it as well.

State of the markets (Monthly recurring piece)

• I like to use the CNN “Fear & Greed” Index just to quantify where the markets are; last month, we were firmly into neutral. Interestingly, the index remains in neutral territory…..

• But I have to admit the neutral doesn’t quite feel right. I discussed it in the stress of market melt ups, and this piece (sizing up the small cap rally) was good as well, but basically mega-cap tech has stalled out while most everything else has just ripped. And I think you can see that if you look under the hood of some of the market stuff; for example:

• So what to do? Obviously a lot of stuff is not as cheap today as it was last month…. but I still think there’s plenty of interesting things out there. I can point you to a lot of stocks that are up 30% over the past month but still down ~50% over the past 18 months…. it’s much easier said than done, but as an investor you need to not be wedded to the “o this stock has run; I missed it!” thinking. Instead, you just need to step back, weigh the risk reward, and be willing to pull the trigger even if the stock has already moved up a bit if you think it’s still good value.

  • I’d also suggest there are plenty of event-y names with some hair on them or complexity to them that still represent interesting values…..

Nerd Corner (Monthly recurring piece)

• There’s no hiding it; I’m a massive nerd. I read 3-4 fantasy books a month, my favorite pastime is playing board games with my wife and friends, and I was an eager supporter of the Brandon Sanderson Kickstarter (yes, I splurged and went for the hardcover books).

• Anyway, I figured a few of you are nerds like me, so I started this segment to give recs of what I’m nerding out over currently, with the hope that you’ll either try it and enjoy it or recommend me similarly nerdy things that I’ll enjoy. This month’s recs:

  • I’m back into the Wandering Inn this month! At ~1700 pages, book 12 is no joke…. but man is this world awesome. As I tell everyone who reads it- the first ~200 pages of book 1 of the Wandering Inn are very slow…. but if you can power through that, it’s just an incredible fantasy series. I can’t tell you how many of my friends were skeptical, tried it, and are now hooked.

• PS- outside of my monthly recs, I constantly get asked what my favorite fantasy books are. So I’m just going to throw this list out monthly:

  • Anything Brandon Sanderson writes; he’s by far the best fantasy author out there. I’d probably start with Mistborn, though Tess and the Emerald Sea is basically a standalone book and might be my favorite book he’s written. The Frugal Wizard’s Handbook for Surviving Medieval England is also a standalone book and a very fun and fast read.

  • Kingkiller is probably the best series I’ve ever read; waiting for the third is agony.

  • Gentleman Bastards is right up there with Kingkiller; the mix of fun and world building is outstanding.

  • Red Rising series is more sci-fi, but my god is it good. I would literally stay up all night to read every book the day they came out (note: I’ve only read the first trilogy; I’m going to read the second when the last book comes out later this year).

  • If you’re looking for something a little more under the radar (most of the books above are widely regarded as some of the best fantasy books / series ever), the Licanius Trilogy was fantastic.

  • First Law trilogy is excellent. It can get a little brutal / graphic though; there are a bunch of sequels and spins, but I’ve never been able to finish them because one of them got so brutal I just put the book down and never picked it up again. But the first trilogy is really, really great.

  • The Cradle series probably isn’t as “good” as the books above, but I binged them and every fantasy fan I’ve recommended them to has said something along the line of “I read all ten books in two months after I opened the first one.”

    • I’ve also really enjoyed that author’s newest series, Last Horizon!

  • The Wandering Inn series isn’t for everyone, and the first ~150 pages of the first book need to get powered through…. but, if you can power through them, the world building here is incredible, and I’ve had so many friends get hooked by this series. If you like hard fantasy, I can near guarantee you’ll like it.

  • The Silvers Epic (Flight of the Silvers, Song of the Orphans, War of the Givens) is more sci-fi than fantasy, but it’s one of my favorite series I’ve ever read and I think is wildly creative in how they use time travel / multiverse as a plot point.

Nerd Corner (Bonus!)

• Obviously I love fantasy books. I also love investing (it can be a love hate relationship). Rarely do my two loves intersect…. which is why I was so interested by microcap Good Time Restaurants’ (GITM) newest director. She was the CEO of Hellogiggles, which is just an objectively hilarious company name, but more importantly she wrote a young adult fiction novel (and for several “hit” television series). That’s my type of director! Some quick amazon’ing did not reveal what book she wrote, and I’m not committed enough to really dive deep into researching what she’s written (or the TV shows she’s written for)…. but I am interested if someone knows and wants to throw it into the comments!

Other things that caught my eye (monthly recurring piece)

• The Only App That Always Wins the Battle for Your Attention (DUOL)

• How to build an AI data center

• Defense is offense

• You better not ding your rental car this summer

  • Interesting look at all things rental car, including how they’re using AI / machine learning to automatically check for damage

• NYC Penthouse Sells for $135 Million in Priciest Deal Since 2022

• The last 72 hours of Archegos

• Missing bats: how an obsession with strike outs upended the balance of baseball

• Sports Betting Companies Weed Out Winners. Gamblers Want to Know Why.

• Inside 3 time NBA champ Nate Robinson’s silent battle- and fight for his life

• A Wildly Obscene Term’s Path to Mainstream Usage

• How do you solve a problem like Elon

• U.S. Accuses Prominent Short Seller Andrew Left of Fraud

  • John Hempton’s thoughts

• Pershing Square to investors: please ignore bill ackman

• How to Make Two Reality Stars Fall in Love? Cue a Tropical Beach

• T-Mobile has a new side gig: fiber internet