Some things and ideas: May 2024
Every month, I put out a “some things and ideas” post with random thoughts on articles or market stuff that caught my attention in the last month (as well as some fantasy book recommendations and some other monthly recurring reminders!).
My monthly overview (Monthly recurring piece)
I consider YAVB my “empire” with four core pieces: this blog / substack (the free side), the premium side of this blog, my podcast (also on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube), and my twitter account. You can see my 2024 vision and goals for the empire here. If you like the blog / free site, I'd encourage you to check out the pod, follow me on twitter, and maybe even subscribe to the premium site!
A bonus note: I get asked from lots of people about how to break into the finance industry. I detailed it more here, but my top advice would be to go out and start a substack (substack recently gave me a referral code if you start one; if you use that, awesome! But I’ve been recommending starting a substack long before they offered referrals!). If you do launch a substack, please let me know so I can try to be helpful.
State of the markets (Monthly recurring piece)
I like to use the CNN “Fear & Greed” Index just to quantify where the markets are; last month, we were tipping just slightly into fear. This month, we’re just out of the fear range:
That probably feels about right; major indices had a nice little bump over the past month:
And that brings their YTD results to solidly positive (particularly for the larger / more tech heavy SPY, which is off to quite the start this year!)
So I’ll somewhat reiterate what I’ve said most of the past year: for the overall indices, I think things are kind of “bleh” right now. Neutral feels about right; I don’t think you generate insane returns up or down from the index. It’s fine. But, under the hood, I think there’s a lot of opportunity. I mentioned it in my random ramblings earlier this month, but you’re seeing a wave of take privates in different industries, and IMO that’s because while the overall indices are holding up well there are a few industries and sectors that have just been left for dead and represent fantastic value…. value so attractive that control shareholders can’t help themselves but make a bid for it. Again, I’ve been saying it for a while, so perhaps I’m a broken record (or a broken clock, because maybe just the pure passage of time means i’ll be right eventually?), but while the indices overall are fine I think the current set up presents huge opportunity for investors willing to dig under the hood and buy out of favor sectors / things with a bit of hair on it.
Nerd Corner (Monthly recurring piece)
There’s no hiding it; I’m a massive nerd. I read 3-4 fantasy books a month, my favorite pastime is playing board games with my wife and friends, and I was an eager supporter of the Brandon Sanderson Kickstarter (yes, I splurged and went for the hardcover books).
Anyway, I figured a few of you are nerds like me, so I started this segment to give recs of what I’m nerding out over currently, with the hope that you’ll either try it and enjoy it or recommend me similarly nerdy things that I’ll enjoy. This month’s recs:
Last month, I mentioned I was rereading the first two books (Flight of the Silvers and Song of the Orphans, respectively) in the Silvers Saga. This month, I moved into book 3 (The War of the Givens). I’m about halfway through (at ~800 pages, the book is a monster, and I didn’t have quite as much reading free time this month. Plus I took a break to read Asif’s Special Situation book to prep for our pod!); the series remains fantastic. Strong recommend.
PS- outside of my monthly recs, I constantly get asked what my favorite fantasy books are. So I’m just going to throw this list out monthly:
Anything Brandon Sanderson writes; he’s by far the best fantasy author out there. I’d probably start with Mistborn, though Tess and the Emerald Sea is basically a standalone book and might be my favorite book he’s written. The Frugal Wizard’s Handbook for Surviving Medieval England is also a standalone book and a very fun and fast read.
Kingkiller is probably the best series I’ve ever read; waiting for the third is agony.
Gentleman Bastards is right up there with Kingkiller; the mix of fun and world building is outstanding.
Red Rising series is more sci-fi, but my god is it good. I would literally stay up all night to read every book the day they came out (note: I’ve only read the first trilogy; I’m going to read the second when the last book comes out later this year).
If you’re looking for something a little more under the radar (most of the books above are widely regarded as some of the best fantasy books / series ever), the Licanius Trilogy was fantastic.
First Law trilogy is excellent. It can get a little brutal / graphic though; there are a bunch of sequels and spins, but I’ve never been able to finish them because one of them got so brutal I just put the book down and never picked it up again. But the first trilogy is really, really great.
The Cradle series probably isn’t as “good” as the books above, but I binged them and every fantasy fan I’ve recommended them to has said something along the line of “I read all ten books in two months after I opened the first one.”
I’ve also really enjoyed that author’s newest series, Last Horizon!
The Wandering Inn series isn’t for everyone, and the first ~150 pages of the first book need to get powered through…. but, if you can power through them, the world building here is incredible, and I’ve had so many friends get hooked by this series. If you like hard fantasy, I can near guarantee you’ll like it.
The Silvers Epic (Flight of the Silvers, Song of the Orphans, War of the Givens) is more sci-fi than fantasy, but it’s one of my favorite series I’ve ever read and I think is wildly creative in how they use time travel / multiverse as a plot point.
Other things that caught my eye (monthly recurring piece)