Some things and ideas: October 2024
Every month, I put out a “some things and ideas” post with random thoughts on articles or market stuff that caught my attention in the last month (as well as some fantasy book recommendations and some other monthly recurring reminders!).
My monthly overview (Monthly recurring piece)
I consider YAVB my “empire” with four core pieces: this blog / substack (the free side), the premium side of this blog, my podcast (also on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube), and my twitter account. You can see my 2024 vision and goals for the empire here. If you like the blog / free site, I'd encourage you to check out the pod, follow me on twitter, and maybe even subscribe to the premium site!
A bonus note: I get asked from lots of people about how to break into the finance industry. I detailed it more here, but my top advice would be to go out and start a substack (substack recently gave me a referral code if you start one; if you use that, awesome! But I’ve been recommending starting a substack long before they offered referrals!). If you do launch a substack, please let me know so I can try to be helpful.
State of the markets (Monthly recurring piece)
It’s not a perfect indicator, but I like to use the CNN “Fear & Greed” Index just to quickly quantify where the markets are.
Last month, we had tipped into greed territory, and we remain there this month….
I’ll be honest with you: I don’t know what to make of this market. It continues to feel like most things that are cyclical or have some type of economic sensitivity are pricing in a pretty bearish scenario. For example, oil has sold off hard for most of this year; obviously there are a lot of things that go into oil prices, and I think that’s more supply driven (OPEC+ production ramps and US shale continuing to deliver) than demand driven so it may not be a perfect example…. but most of the cyclical / hard asset stocks I follow seem to be pricing in below cycle earnings for the near to medium term…. or most companies I follow that are exposed to lower or middle income consumers are discussing a really difficult consumer environment. In contrast, anything growth-y is basically firing on all cylinders, and meme stocks and crypto are screaming to all time highs. So it continues to feel like a two sided market, and it’s just really hard to put your finger on where everything is.
Nerd Corner (Monthly recurring piece)
There’s no hiding it; I’m a massive nerd. I read 3-4 fantasy books a month, my favorite pastime is playing board games with my wife and friends, and I was an eager supporter of the Brandon Sanderson (original) Kickstarter (yes, I splurged and went for the hardcover books).
I didn’t support Sanderson’s DND-style board game…. but only because my wife would murder me if I bought another board game when I have a whole Dungeon Master kit collecting dust. Still, I wanted to highlight it because between the two Kickstarters Sanderson will have raised >$50m for new projects; if you’re a fan of fantasy and that type of fan enthusiasm doesn’t encourage you to give him a try, I don’t know what will! As I mention below, if you’re trying him out, I’d probably start with Mistborn, though Tess and the Emerald Sea is basically a standalone book and might be my favorite book he’s written
Anyway, I figured a few of you are nerds like me, so I started this segment to give recs of what I’m nerding out over currently, with the hope that you’ll either try it and enjoy it or recommend me similarly nerdy things that I’ll enjoy. This month’s recs:
I read Age of Assassins; really liked it. Very interesting world, fun characters, twist-y plot with some twists you’ll see coming and some twists you’d never expect but make sense in hindsight….. I’m already on to book 2 and excited to learn more about the world and its history (though, of course, I have pre-ordered Wandering Inn book 14 and will be instantly starting that when it comes out!).
PS- outside of my monthly recs, I constantly get asked what my favorite fantasy books are. So I’m just going to throw this list out monthly:
Anything Brandon Sanderson writes; he’s by far the best fantasy author out there. I’d probably start with Mistborn, though Tess and the Emerald Sea is basically a standalone book and might be my favorite book he’s written. The Frugal Wizard’s Handbook for Surviving Medieval England is also a standalone book and a very fun and fast read.
Kingkiller is probably the best series I’ve ever read; waiting for the third is agony.
Gentleman Bastards is right up there with Kingkiller; the mix of fun and world building is outstanding.
Red Rising series is more sci-fi, but my god is it good. I would literally stay up all night to read every book the day they came out (note: I’ve only read the first trilogy; I’m going to read the second when the last book comes out later this year).
If you’re looking for something a little more under the radar (most of the books above are widely regarded as some of the best fantasy books / series ever), the Licanius Trilogy was fantastic.
First Law trilogy is excellent. It can get a little brutal / graphic though; there are a bunch of sequels and spins, but I’ve never been able to finish them because one of them got so brutal I just put the book down and never picked it up again. But the first trilogy is really, really great.
The Cradle series probably isn’t as “good” as the books above, but I binged them and every fantasy fan I’ve recommended them to has said something along the line of “I read all ten books in two months after I opened the first one.”
I’ve also really enjoyed that author’s newest series, Last Horizon!
The Wandering Inn series isn’t for everyone, and the first ~150 pages of the first book need to get powered through…. but, if you can power through them, the world building here is incredible, and I’ve had so many friends get hooked by this series. If you like hard fantasy, I can near guarantee you’ll like it.
The Silvers Epic (Flight of the Silvers, Song of the Orphans, War of the Givens) is more sci-fi than fantasy, but it’s one of my favorite series I’ve ever read and I think is wildly creative in how they use time travel / multiverse as a plot point (the last book was a little slow, but the ending wrapped everything up beautifully / it got a little dusty in the room I was reading).
Other things that caught my eye (monthly recurring piece)
This thread on being a small manager / evolving went kind of viral but really resonated with me
The Value Perspective with Andrew Walker
Link to a podcast I did over the summer that just came out
A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market
Really interesting, but I wish the article gave more statistics around the bettor. $30m is not that big considering how many markets offer this / how much money has been bet. Perhaps I’m missing it, but it doens’t seem like enough money to wildly swing the odds.
After I linked to that piece, I read Market Prices Are Not Probabilities. I really enjoyed it…. though I still am a little skeptical that just one person going YOLO on a market could so consistently inflate it, and I’m still not convinced market prices across a whole slew of participants don’t come awfully close to real probabilities.
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