1 Comment
User's avatar
⭠ Return to thread
MikeFromNZ's avatar

Great recap. I had the same thoughts re the risks of taking an premature victory lap.

I agree that the deal will likely close on the agreed terms, but it's hard to assign a probability, and the true probability will never be known, since we live in a deterministic rather than probabilistic world (the cat is either dead or alive, and the deal will either closes or it won't).

So if it does close, as I think is likely, I'll grant another well-deserved victory lap, but that doesn't mean it was a sure thing, nor does convey any informational content about the actual probability.

Expand full comment