Thanks for writing this up! I briefly looked at SPWH after the deal fell apart but got scared off by the same SWBI headline you noted. I wonder if retailer economics are different, though—do gun sales get pulled forward more than ammunition? And wonder if there’s a good attach rate on buying ammunition.
Thanks for writing this up! I briefly looked at SPWH after the deal fell apart but got scared off by the same SWBI headline you noted. I wonder if retailer economics are different, though—do gun sales get pulled forward more than ammunition? And wonder if there’s a good attach rate on buying ammunition.
(Negative version of this is that the Covid pull-forward was more about fears of unrest rather than the usual fear of gun bans, so may have skewed more towards ammunition than guns. I’ll have to check some transcripts for that, but if so the trade is probably shorting SPWH’s comps.)
I'm honestly not sure. SNWI had the quote below on their call, which kind of skews to me thinking that the current environment is hotter than average, but just way less hot than 2020. But it's really tough to tell till we see a Q3 number and maybe some color
"That being said, however, the inventory levels in the channel indicate to us that our third quarter sales are likely to be quite a bit lower than what we realized in our third quarter of fiscal 2021. Last year's third quarter was impacted by strong consumer demand driven by the height of the pandemic, a recent change in the presidency, civil unrest and virtually no inventory in the channel. None of these factors exist in our current third quarter. In response, we have reduced production rates by nearly 27%."
Thanks for writing this up! I briefly looked at SPWH after the deal fell apart but got scared off by the same SWBI headline you noted. I wonder if retailer economics are different, though—do gun sales get pulled forward more than ammunition? And wonder if there’s a good attach rate on buying ammunition.
(Negative version of this is that the Covid pull-forward was more about fears of unrest rather than the usual fear of gun bans, so may have skewed more towards ammunition than guns. I’ll have to check some transcripts for that, but if so the trade is probably shorting SPWH’s comps.)
I'm honestly not sure. SNWI had the quote below on their call, which kind of skews to me thinking that the current environment is hotter than average, but just way less hot than 2020. But it's really tough to tell till we see a Q3 number and maybe some color
"That being said, however, the inventory levels in the channel indicate to us that our third quarter sales are likely to be quite a bit lower than what we realized in our third quarter of fiscal 2021. Last year's third quarter was impacted by strong consumer demand driven by the height of the pandemic, a recent change in the presidency, civil unrest and virtually no inventory in the channel. None of these factors exist in our current third quarter. In response, we have reduced production rates by nearly 27%."