Mark Gomes (aka "Moneymark") has a concept I love and have adopted in my investment thinking. That is: the three stages of a small company, 1. Great Find, 2. Wait Time, and 3. Gold Mine. The idea being when a stock is bubbling up on sudden awareness of infinite possibilities, it is a Great Find. Then comes the Wait Time. Think a biotech …
Mark Gomes (aka "Moneymark") has a concept I love and have adopted in my investment thinking. That is: the three stages of a small company, 1. Great Find, 2. Wait Time, and 3. Gold Mine. The idea being when a stock is bubbling up on sudden awareness of infinite possibilities, it is a Great Find. Then comes the Wait Time. Think a biotech getting an approval, but now has to build a sales force, arrange reimbursement, etc...doing the "hard" stuff. Followed (maybe) by the point where their customers are climbing over each other, paying whatever asked, to get the product (NVDA today)...that's "Gold Mine". It is the Wait Time that tries men's souls.
CERS is a stock that went public in the late 1990's, providing a solution to the spread of AIDS via blood transfusion, developed at UCSF. I suppose a bubble stock needs The Big Theme behind it, and since AIDS is yesterday's news, CERS "bubble days" perhaps are not to be repeated. 25 years of "Wait Time". Their solution did get developed, did get approved, and did succeed in becoming a recurring revenue monopoly. Now it is a real business that is at the end of cash burn days, with a significant new product driver just kicking in, and a third product coming 2026. Each product is a bigger TAM. The only two shareholders who seem to care are ARK and Baker Bros. The BTIG analyst (Hold) suggested 3Q 2023 might have been the turn. I postulate 1Q 2024 could be the confirmation of that, and maybe enter "Gold Mine" stage.
Mark Gomes (aka "Moneymark") has a concept I love and have adopted in my investment thinking. That is: the three stages of a small company, 1. Great Find, 2. Wait Time, and 3. Gold Mine. The idea being when a stock is bubbling up on sudden awareness of infinite possibilities, it is a Great Find. Then comes the Wait Time. Think a biotech getting an approval, but now has to build a sales force, arrange reimbursement, etc...doing the "hard" stuff. Followed (maybe) by the point where their customers are climbing over each other, paying whatever asked, to get the product (NVDA today)...that's "Gold Mine". It is the Wait Time that tries men's souls.
CERS is a stock that went public in the late 1990's, providing a solution to the spread of AIDS via blood transfusion, developed at UCSF. I suppose a bubble stock needs The Big Theme behind it, and since AIDS is yesterday's news, CERS "bubble days" perhaps are not to be repeated. 25 years of "Wait Time". Their solution did get developed, did get approved, and did succeed in becoming a recurring revenue monopoly. Now it is a real business that is at the end of cash burn days, with a significant new product driver just kicking in, and a third product coming 2026. Each product is a bigger TAM. The only two shareholders who seem to care are ARK and Baker Bros. The BTIG analyst (Hold) suggested 3Q 2023 might have been the turn. I postulate 1Q 2024 could be the confirmation of that, and maybe enter "Gold Mine" stage.