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Travis's avatar

I would think the optics of the SEC shutting down Coinbase are pretty bad for the government, and they'd see a large settlement plus more regulations as a win. In other words, isn't a reasonable base case here a settlement where COIN pays a few billion and halts trading in a bunch of securities?

That would hurt the core business (40% of volumes are not BTC or ETH) but would also reduce regulatory uncertainty. Long term I think competition and lower rates are massive headwinds, but the incremental operating leverage is huge if crypto goes through another bull cycle. For me it's hard to pinpoint where it all nets out...

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