Makes sense, thanks for sharing some of your thinking.
Peak NI was $3.0bn in 2021. Even if they reachieve similar or superior volumes, NI will probably be a lot lower because pricing has come down and opex has grown considerably. And then there is Andrew's case that CB win = increased crypto competition. So 33% growth vs prior peak plus 3…
Makes sense, thanks for sharing some of your thinking.
Peak NI was $3.0bn in 2021. Even if they reachieve similar or superior volumes, NI will probably be a lot lower because pricing has come down and opex has grown considerably. And then there is Andrew's case that CB win = increased crypto competition. So 33% growth vs prior peak plus 30x PE on that peak earnings amount seems very difficult to achieve.
Discussing this article with some very smart friends who are moderately bullish coin, some thoughts are relevant
"what I find with many bear cases on any company, they assume the corporation is static and unmoving, set in its path like those old school football games ". Sure opex is up. It can also go down. You some next bull cycle will be max the same size, why wouldn't it be 3x-10x bigger? Every last cycle was much bigger?
We are looking at the realistic high case not the expected case.
Different friend : "this uy is underestimating how long it will take other sites user experience to catch up ". I agree... IB just sells exposure to the asset and poorly. Coinbase has a propriety L2 wallet you can move your coins to and use them, this requires so much, for one thing actually buying and custodying coins. The tradfi competition is nowhere except very think exposure to asset prices. sure since author is a crypto skeptic and probably hasn't done an on chain transaction in the last month he assumes that's all that customers want because that's all he is doing is trading exposure to the aseet. But if crypto works a lot of people are doing a lot more stuff and most finance companies are years behind on building that, and the crypto native alternatives have been weakened immensely.
I feel like the author looks at coinbase and says "$53 is fully valued coinbase if not shut down but 90% they lose the suit so fair value is $6". And he sorry of uses multiples to justify $53 as fairly valued
But I look the short risk here
What if $150 is fairly valued coin if not shut down? And the market has already priced in the SEC? Seems more plausible, no?
Makes sense, thanks for sharing some of your thinking.
Peak NI was $3.0bn in 2021. Even if they reachieve similar or superior volumes, NI will probably be a lot lower because pricing has come down and opex has grown considerably. And then there is Andrew's case that CB win = increased crypto competition. So 33% growth vs prior peak plus 30x PE on that peak earnings amount seems very difficult to achieve.
Will be an interesting one to see unfold.
Many thanks for the good comment.
You could be right.
Discussing this article with some very smart friends who are moderately bullish coin, some thoughts are relevant
"what I find with many bear cases on any company, they assume the corporation is static and unmoving, set in its path like those old school football games ". Sure opex is up. It can also go down. You some next bull cycle will be max the same size, why wouldn't it be 3x-10x bigger? Every last cycle was much bigger?
We are looking at the realistic high case not the expected case.
Different friend : "this uy is underestimating how long it will take other sites user experience to catch up ". I agree... IB just sells exposure to the asset and poorly. Coinbase has a propriety L2 wallet you can move your coins to and use them, this requires so much, for one thing actually buying and custodying coins. The tradfi competition is nowhere except very think exposure to asset prices. sure since author is a crypto skeptic and probably hasn't done an on chain transaction in the last month he assumes that's all that customers want because that's all he is doing is trading exposure to the aseet. But if crypto works a lot of people are doing a lot more stuff and most finance companies are years behind on building that, and the crypto native alternatives have been weakened immensely.
I feel like the author looks at coinbase and says "$53 is fully valued coinbase if not shut down but 90% they lose the suit so fair value is $6". And he sorry of uses multiples to justify $53 as fairly valued
But I look the short risk here
What if $150 is fairly valued coin if not shut down? And the market has already priced in the SEC? Seems more plausible, no?