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Roman's avatar

Yes, cyclicality is a problem. If you want to buy Volkswagen, consider Porsche SE. It is a holding company for Volkswagen stock with a 25% discount, so you can get Volkswagen shares even cheaper. Nice dividend yield and competent management, too.

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Cyclical Value Investing's avatar

in the case of VW/Porsche, it have the extra issue of german deinsutrilization that is not priced in

When market have realized full gas storage at crazy price is not good news, I expect the company to get A LOT cheaper by let's say 2025. Especially if recession happen on top.

By then it also most likely will start moving more factories to eastern Europe where energy system will be less screwed (Hungary/Slovakia on Russian supply), Polish coal, Romania+Poland increasing nuclear

So while I like the idea, I am fine sitting it out 2-3 years. If I missed it so be it.

If not, the entry point will be so low it is one for the legend :D

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