Per gpt, there are quite a lot sectors that fit your description:
1. Semiconductors (building or expanding fabrication plants can take 2–3 years or more)
2. Aerospace (design and production of aircraft, satellites, etc. involve multi-year timelines)
3. Shipbuilding (constructing a new ship can easily exceed a year and often involves a backlog)
4. Pharmaceutical manufacturing (especially biologics, which require specialized facilities that can’t be quickly repurposed)
5. Defense industry (long development cycles and government procurement procedures)
6. Construction and real estate (permitting, land acquisition, and actual building can introduce multi-year lags)
7. Heavy industrial equipment (e.g., large turbines, specialized machinery with few global manufacturers and long build times)
We should exclude #1 which is already at cycle peak, #2 also realized with AL, AER, WLFC soaring in 2024, #5 got a demand shock especially for drones, causing drone manufacturers shares spiked in 2024; so we are left with 3, 4, 6, 7.
Hi Andrew, long time follower first time poster, I recently came across a very interesting AI power play that might be up your alley given its deep value and under discovered nature and wrote up on it here that you might be interested in taking look : https://substack.com/home/post/p-156521381 Obviously international stock, microcap, illiquid and all that other good disclosure stuff, but happy to chat if interested.
Mining is a quintessential example of the fixed supply / demand shock dynamic. Limited investment with ESG, multi-multi year to get new supply online. Eg copper & electrification driven demand is an oft cited thesis. Risk is there’s a lot of components to demand and relatively fixed supply means there’s just as much leverage on the downside should other demand components weaken
Offshore drillers
Miners
Per gpt, there are quite a lot sectors that fit your description:
1. Semiconductors (building or expanding fabrication plants can take 2–3 years or more)
2. Aerospace (design and production of aircraft, satellites, etc. involve multi-year timelines)
3. Shipbuilding (constructing a new ship can easily exceed a year and often involves a backlog)
4. Pharmaceutical manufacturing (especially biologics, which require specialized facilities that can’t be quickly repurposed)
5. Defense industry (long development cycles and government procurement procedures)
6. Construction and real estate (permitting, land acquisition, and actual building can introduce multi-year lags)
7. Heavy industrial equipment (e.g., large turbines, specialized machinery with few global manufacturers and long build times)
We should exclude #1 which is already at cycle peak, #2 also realized with AL, AER, WLFC soaring in 2024, #5 got a demand shock especially for drones, causing drone manufacturers shares spiked in 2024; so we are left with 3, 4, 6, 7.
#7 is interesting IMO.
Hi Andrew, long time follower first time poster, I recently came across a very interesting AI power play that might be up your alley given its deep value and under discovered nature and wrote up on it here that you might be interested in taking look : https://substack.com/home/post/p-156521381 Obviously international stock, microcap, illiquid and all that other good disclosure stuff, but happy to chat if interested.
Mining is a quintessential example of the fixed supply / demand shock dynamic. Limited investment with ESG, multi-multi year to get new supply online. Eg copper & electrification driven demand is an oft cited thesis. Risk is there’s a lot of components to demand and relatively fixed supply means there’s just as much leverage on the downside should other demand components weaken
post not very logical...you could have been in Dominion, as a high data center play, and gone nowhere.
most of big spike fomo are plays on the nuclear meme/sentiment.
regardless, data centers far more likely to revert to trend. AI-as-a-utility from loss making overbuilders easily possible.